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In October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as British prime minister, he was the fifth British prime minister to take up the role over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its sixth premier in 24 months – three of them in the past 10 months?

The latest prime minister, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in return for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a temporary fix. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not witnessed for decades – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Essential context: from the moment Macron initiated an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly split into three opposing factions – left, far right and his own centrist coalition – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces dual debt and deficit crises: its debt-to-GDP ratio and budget shortfall are now nearly double the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to approve a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be largely unchanged from before – he faced fury from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the next day, he resigned. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a dignified speech, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “personal ambitions” would make his job virtually unworkable.

Another twist in the tale: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a last-ditch effort to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it mildly, not without complications.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The president’s office announced the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support no-confidence motions proposed against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the government should survive those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the right-leaning parties are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and longer-term survival – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in 24 months is, like his predecessors, finished.

Most expect this to occur soon. Although, by an unlikely turn, the divided parliament musters collective will to pass a budget by year-end, the outlook afterward look grim.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that clear majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that transformation will not be possible under the existing governmental framework. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”