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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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