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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a summit obstructed from the top if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.